Regional Risks of doing Business
Regional Risks of doing Business

Overview

PERCEIVED RISKS BY ECONOMY
ECONOMY PERCEIVED RISK 1 PERCEIVED RISK 2 PERCEIVED RISK 3 PERCEIVED RISK 4 PERCEIVED RISK 5

Albania

Spread of infectious diseases
Fiscal crises
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Natural catastrophes
Unmanageable inflation

Angola

Failure of national governance
Unemployment or underemployment
Unmanageable inflation
Profound social instability
Spread of infectious diseases

Argentina

Unmanageable inflation
Profound social instability
Failure of national governance
Fiscal crises
Unemployment or underemployment

Armenia

Inter state conflict
Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
Large scale involuntary migration
Failure of critical infrastructure

Australia

Cyber attacks
Spread of infectious diseases
Fiscal crises
Energy price shock
Extreme weather events

Austria

Cyber attacks
Spread of infectious diseases
Large scale involuntary migration
Extreme weather events
Asset bubble

Azerbaijan

Spread of infectious diseases
Inter state conflict
Fiscal crises
Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
Natural catastrophes

Bahrain

Energy price shock
Fiscal crises
Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
Cyber attacks

Bangladesh

Failure of national governance
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of urban planning
Failure of climate change adaptation

Barbados

Extreme weather events
Natural catastrophes
Spread of infectious diseases
Water crises
Fiscal crises

Belarus

Fiscal crises
Spread of infectious diseases
Energy price shock
State collapse or crisis
Unemployment or underemployment

Belgium

Cyber attacks
Failure of national governance
Spread of infectious diseases
Data fraud or theft
Natural catastrophes

Benin

Cyber attacks
Unemployment or underemployment
Energy price shock
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Spread of infectious diseases

Bolivia

Profound social instability
State collapse or crisis
Illicit trade
Failure of national governance
Unemployment or underemployment

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Failure of national governance
Profound social instability
Large scale involuntary migration
Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment

Botswana

Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of urban planning
Failure of critical infrastructure
Water crises
Cyber attacks

Brazil

Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of national governance
Fiscal crises
Profound social instability
Spread of infectious diseases

Bulgaria

Large scale involuntary migration
Failure of national governance
Human made environmental catastrophes
Inter state conflict
Failure of regional and global governance

Burundi

Unemployment or underemployment
Fiscal crises
Unmanageable inflation
Energy price shock
Food crises

Cambodia

Asset bubble
Failure of national governance
Spread of infectious diseases
Energy price shock
Extreme weather events

Cameroon

Unemployment or underemployment
Energy price shock
Illicit trade
Failure of national governance
Failure of critical infrastructure

Canada

Cyber attacks
Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
Fiscal crises
Data fraud or theft

Cape Verde

Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
Water crises
Energy price shock
Food crises

Chad

Unemployment or underemployment
Energy price shock
Failure of national governance
Spread of infectious diseases
Illicit trade

Chile

Profound social instability
Water crises
Spread of infectious diseases
Natural catastrophes
State collapse or crisis

China

Asset bubble
Spread of infectious diseases
Inter state conflict
Natural catastrophes
Human made environmental catastrophes

Colombia

Unemployment or underemployment
Profound social instability
Spread of infectious diseases
Fiscal crises
Large scale involuntary migration

Congo

Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of critical infrastructure
Profound social instability
Failure of national governance
Spread of infectious diseases

Costa Rica

Fiscal crises
Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of critical infrastructure
Illicit trade
State collapse or crisis

Côte d'Ivoire

Cyber attacks
Unemployment or underemployment
Profound social instability
Failure of national governance
Energy price shock

Croatia

Failure of national governance
Large scale involuntary migration
Profound social instability
Unemployment or underemployment
Asset bubble

Cyprus

Spread of infectious diseases
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Asset bubble
Inter state conflict
Fiscal crises

Czech Republic

Fiscal crises
Cyber attacks
Asset bubble
Unemployment or underemployment
Large scale involuntary migration

Denmark

Fiscal crises
Cyber attacks
Spread of infectious diseases
Failure of climate change adaptation
Data fraud or theft

Dominican Republic

Fiscal crises
Energy price shock
Natural catastrophes
Extreme weather events
Spread of infectious diseases

Ecuador

Unemployment or underemployment
Profound social instability
Fiscal crises
Failure of national governance
State collapse or crisis

Egypt

Water crises
Unemployment or underemployment
Energy price shock
Unmanageable inflation
Cyber attacks

El Salvador

Unemployment or underemployment
Profound social instability
Water crises
Fiscal crises
Large scale involuntary migration

Estonia

Spread of infectious diseases
Cyber attacks
Asset bubble
Failure of national governance
Unemployment or underemployment

Finland

Spread of infectious diseases
Fiscal crises
Cyber attacks
Failure of climate change adaptation
Large scale involuntary migration

France

Profound social instability
Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
Cyber attacks
Failure of climate change adaptation

Georgia

Inter state conflict
Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of national governance
Spread of infectious diseases
Cyber attacks

Germany

Cyber attacks
Large scale involuntary migration
Asset bubble
Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment

Ghana

Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Failure of critical infrastructure
Energy price shock
Spread of infectious diseases

Greece

Fiscal crises
Large scale involuntary migration
Unemployment or underemployment
Spread of infectious diseases
Failure of financial mechanism or institution

Guatemala

Failure of critical infrastructure
Illicit trade
Profound social instability
Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment

Guinea

Failure of national governance
Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
Energy price shock

Honduras

Profound social instability
Unemployment or underemployment
Energy price shock
Failure of national governance
Water crises

Hong Kong

Profound social instability
Spread of infectious diseases
Asset bubble
Inter state conflict
Cyber attacks

Hungary

Extreme weather events
Spread of infectious diseases
Profound social instability
Unemployment or underemployment
Human made environmental catastrophes

Iceland

Extreme weather events
Natural catastrophes
Spread of infectious diseases
Cyber attacks
Fiscal crises

India

Unemployment or underemployment
Misuse of technologies
Profound social instability
Energy price shock
Asset bubble

Indonesia

Spread of infectious diseases
Natural catastrophes
Fiscal crises
Asset bubble
Food crises

Iran

Unmanageable inflation
Fiscal crises
Asset bubble
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Inter state conflict

Ireland

Cyber attacks
Fiscal crises
Failure of critical infrastructure
Asset bubble
Failure of urban planning

Israel

Cyber attacks
Spread of infectious diseases
Terrorist attacks
Weapons of mass destruction
Asset bubble

Italy

Spread of infectious diseases
Failure of national governance
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Unemployment or underemployment
Profound social instability

Japan

Natural catastrophes
Cyber attacks
Extreme weather events
Spread of infectious diseases
Fiscal crises

Jordan

Unemployment or underemployment
Energy price shock
Fiscal crises
Asset bubble
Water crises

Kazakhstan

Fiscal crises
State collapse or crisis
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Profound social instability
Energy price shock

Kenya

Unemployment or underemployment
Illicit trade
Data fraud or theft
Cyber attacks
Terrorist attacks

South Korea

Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
Inter state conflict
Cyber attacks
Human made environmental catastrophes

Kuwait

Energy price shock
Spread of infectious diseases
Asset bubble
Fiscal crises
Inter state conflict

Kyrgyzstan

Fiscal crises
Profound social instability
Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
State collapse or crisis

Lao

Deflation
Unmanageable inflation
Natural catastrophes
Human made environmental catastrophes
Spread of infectious diseases

Latvia

Failure of national governance
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Inter state conflict
Failure of regional and global governance
Unemployment or underemployment

Lebanon

Failure of national governance
State collapse or crisis
Unemployment or underemployment
Unmanageable inflation
Profound social instability

Lesotho

Failure of climate change adaptation
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Water crises
Terrorist attacks
Weapons of mass destruction

Liberia

Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of critical infrastructure
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Energy price shock
Critical information infrastructure breakdown

Lithuania

Failure of national governance
Spread of infectious diseases
Asset bubble
Cyber attacks
Inter state conflict

Luxembourg

Asset bubble
Cyber attacks
Spread of infectious diseases
Data fraud or theft
Failure of financial mechanism or institution

Malawi

Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of national governance
Spread of infectious diseases
Energy price shock
Extreme weather events

Malaysia

Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of national governance
Cyber attacks
Misuse of technologies

Mali

Terrorist attacks
Failure of national governance
Illicit trade
Fiscal crises
Energy price shock

Malta

Spread of infectious diseases
Asset bubble
Failure of national governance
Failure of urban planning
Large scale involuntary migration

Mauritania

Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of national governance
Energy price shock
Failure of regional and global governance

Mauritius

Extreme weather events
Spread of infectious diseases
Natural catastrophes
Cyber attacks
Asset bubble

Mexico

Failure of national governance
Profound social instability
Unemployment or underemployment
State collapse or crisis
Spread of infectious diseases

Mongolia

Fiscal crises
State collapse or crisis
Spread of infectious diseases
Failure of urban planning
Unmanageable inflation

Montenegro

Spread of infectious diseases
Fiscal crises
Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
State collapse or crisis

Namibia

Unemployment or underemployment
Spread of infectious diseases
Water crises
Data fraud or theft
Failure of urban planning

Nepal

Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of national governance
Failure of urban planning
Cyber attacks
Unmanageable inflation

Netherlands

Cyber attacks
Spread of infectious diseases
Failure of climate change adaptation
Asset bubble
Data fraud or theft

New Zealand

Natural catastrophes
Spread of infectious diseases
Cyber attacks
Fiscal crises
Failure of climate change adaptation

Nicaragua

Failure of national governance
State collapse or crisis
Profound social instability
Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment

Nigeria

Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of critical infrastructure
Failure of national governance
Energy price shock
Profound social instability

North Macedonia

Large scale involuntary migration
Failure of national governance
Failure of critical infrastructure
Failure of urban planning
Failure of regional and global governance

Oman

Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
Energy price shock
Cyber attacks
Fiscal crises

Pakistan

Terrorist attacks
Water crises
Weapons of mass destruction
Spread of infectious diseases
Unmanageable inflation

Panama

Unemployment or underemployment
Spread of infectious diseases
Water crises
Failure of national governance
Profound social instability

Paraguay

Illicit trade
Unemployment or underemployment
Profound social instability
Failure of national governance
Failure of critical infrastructure

Peru

Failure of national governance
Profound social instability
Natural catastrophes
State collapse or crisis
Large scale involuntary migration

Philippines

Natural catastrophes
Failure of national governance
Spread of infectious diseases
Failure of critical infrastructure
Extreme weather events

Poland

Spread of infectious diseases
Inter state conflict
Fiscal crises
Cyber attacks
Failure of national governance

Portugal

Spread of infectious diseases
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Unemployment or underemployment
Asset bubble
Cyber attacks

Qatar

Spread of infectious diseases
Asset bubble
Cyber attacks
Natural catastrophes
Energy price shock

Romania

Failure of national governance
Fiscal crises
Spread of infectious diseases
Profound social instability
Large scale involuntary migration

Russia

Inter state conflict
Profound social instability
Spread of infectious diseases
Fiscal crises
Failure of financial mechanism or institution

Rwanda

Unemployment or underemployment
Spread of infectious diseases
Cyber attacks
Extreme weather events
Energy price shock

Saudi Arabia

Energy price shock
Spread of infectious diseases
Cyber attacks
Deflation
Fiscal crises

Senegal

Unemployment or underemployment
Fiscal crises
Energy price shock
Cyber attacks
Illicit trade

Serbia

Spread of infectious diseases
Failure of national governance
Inter state conflict
Human made environmental catastrophes
Failure of regional and global governance

Sierra Leone

Unemployment or underemployment
Unmanageable inflation
Failure of critical infrastructure
Spread of infectious diseases
Failure of national governance

Singapore

Cyber attacks
Spread of infectious diseases
Terrorist attacks
Asset bubble
Failure of climate change adaptation

Slovakia

Spread of infectious diseases
Fiscal crises
Profound social instability
Unemployment or underemployment
Asset bubble

Slovenia

Spread of infectious diseases
Fiscal crises
Cyber attacks
Failure of regional and global governance
Human made environmental catastrophes

South Africa

Unemployment or underemployment
Failure of critical infrastructure
Failure of national governance
Profound social instability
Water crises

Spain

Unemployment or underemployment
Spread of infectious diseases
Asset bubble
Profound social instability
Failure of national governance

Sri Lanka

Failure of national governance
Cyber attacks
Spread of infectious diseases
Unmanageable inflation
Energy price shock

Sweden

Cyber attacks
Spread of infectious diseases
Asset bubble
Large scale involuntary migration
Failure of regional and global governance

Switzerland

Cyber attacks
Large scale involuntary migration
Asset bubble
Inter state conflict
Failure of climate change adaptation

Taiwan

Inter state conflict
Spread of infectious diseases
Extreme weather events
Natural catastrophes
Energy price shock

Tajikistan

Energy price shock
Natural catastrophes
Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
Unmanageable inflation

Tanzania

Unemployment or underemployment
Cyber attacks
Data fraud or theft
Food crises
Fiscal crises

Thailand

Asset bubble
Failure of national governance
Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
Cyber attacks

Trinidad and Tobago

Energy price shock
Failure of national governance
Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
Fiscal crises

Tunisia

Illicit trade
Profound social instability
Fiscal crises
Spread of infectious diseases
Energy price shock

Turkey

Fiscal crises
Spread of infectious diseases
Unemployment or underemployment
Inter state conflict
Cyber attacks

Uganda

Unemployment or underemployment
Spread of infectious diseases
Cyber attacks
Misuse of technologies
Data fraud or theft

Ukraine

Spread of infectious diseases
Fiscal crises
State collapse or crisis
Water crises
Profound social instability

United Arab Emirates

Spread of infectious diseases
Cyber attacks
Misuse of technologies
Fiscal crises
Energy price shock

United Kingdom

Cyber attacks
Fiscal crises
Extreme weather events
Spread of infectious diseases
Failure of climate change adaptation

United States of America

Cyber attacks
Spread of infectious diseases
Data fraud or theft
Natural catastrophes
Asset bubble

Uruguay

Unemployment or underemployment
Fiscal crises
Spread of infectious diseases
Failure of critical infrastructure
Unmanageable inflation

Venezuela

Profound social instability
Unmanageable inflation
State collapse or crisis
Food crises
Failure of critical infrastructure

Viet Nam

Spread of infectious diseases
Human made environmental catastrophes
Unemployment or underemployment
Fiscal crises
Cyber attacks

Yemen

State collapse or crisis
Critical information infrastructure breakdown
Inter state conflict
Weapons of mass destruction
Failure of national governance

Zambia

Unemployment or underemployment
Energy price shock
Spread of infectious diseases
Unmanageable inflation
Failure of national governance

Methodology &

Acknowledgements

The findings presented in this report are based on data from the World Economic Forum’s Executive Opinion Survey.
This is the survey that feeds into the Forum’s annual Global Competitiveness Report.

Each year it canvasses the views of business leaders from around the world on the state of the business environment where they are based. The Executive Opinion Survey was conducted in 2020 between January and July, and the survey’s risk-related question received 11,860 responses from 127 economies. Informed by the results of quantitative tests and additional qualitative analysis, we discarded data for some economies. This was the case for Algeria, Azerbaijan and Gambia. In addition, this year the Executive Opinion Survey could not be administered in Brunei Darussalam, Burkina Faso, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Haiti, Jamaica, Madagascar, Moldova, Morocco, Mozambique, Norway, Seychelles or Zimbabwe.

To obtain the regional business perceptions of risk, we weighted economy-level responses by GDP and population. First, we calculated the share of each economy’s GDP and population with respect to their region’s aggregates. When obtaining these aggregates, we considered only those economies for which 2020 survey data was available. Then, we calculated the ratio between these GDP and population shares and the share of each economy’s sample size relative to their corresponding regional sample size. We averaged these ratios to obtain a single weight per economy.

Finally, the regional business perceptions of risk are a simple count of the number of total weighted responses for each risk from the economies comprised in each region. The global business perceptions of risk are a simple average of these regional business perceptions of risk.

The sector perceptions of risk -- agriculture, manufacturing industry, nonmanufacturing industry (mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water supply, construction), and services -- are a simple count of the number of total responses for each risk globally. These results are not weighted nor divided by region or economy.

Reflecting the fact that the survey dates spanned the different trajectories that COVID-19 followed in each economy, and that national containment measures were implemented at different times, we conducted several quantitative tests to check for timing bias in an economy’s responses. We did not find significant differences between responses received from the same economy before and after containment measures were implemented.

The eight regions we analysed are comprised as follows:

East Asia and the Pacific

Australia(57); Cambodia(63); China(282); Hong Kong SAR, China(116); Indonesia(79); Japan(81); Republic of Korea(98); Lao PDR(70); Malaysia(83); Mongolia(84); New Zealand(45); Philippines(88); Singapore(143); Taiwan, China(81); Thailand(81); Viet Nam(75).

Eurasia

Armenia(63); Azerbaijan(51); Belarus(95); Georgia(81); Kazakhstan(61); Kyrgyzstan(100); Russian Federation(270); Tajikistan(83); Ukraine(92).

Eurpoe

Albania(80); Austria(134); Belgium(49); Bosnia and Herzegovina(77); Bulgaria(97); Croatia(82); Cyprus(64); Czech Republic(94); Denmark(101); Estonia(79); Finland(72); France(70); Germany(89); Greece(82); Hungary(86); Iceland(81); Ireland(40); Italy(60); Latvia(75); Lithuania(82); Luxembourg(43); Malta(54); Montenegro(81); Netherlands(82); North Macedonia(33 ); Poland(201); Portugal(156); Romania(137); Serbia(78); Slovakia(80); Slovenia(94); Spain(97); Sweden(40); Switzerland(85); Turkey(85); United Kingdom(105).

Latin America and the Caribbean

Argentina(89); Barbados(34); Bolivia(52); Brazil(296); Chile(410); Colombia(84); Costa Rica(49); Dominican Republic(48); Ecuador(83); El Salvador(62); Guatemala(84); Honduras(99); Mexico(125); Nicaragua(53); Panama(61); Paraguay(87); Peru(88); Trinidad and Tobago(86); Uruguay(80); Venezuela(51).




Middle East and North Africa

Bahrain(73); Egypt(119); Iran(129); Israel(49); Jordan(74); Kuwait(40); Lebanon(60); Oman(86); Qatar(135); Saudi Arabia(59); Tunisia(89); United Arab Emirates(72); Yemen(73).

North America

Canada(81), United States(255).

South Asia

Bangladesh(55); India(259); Nepal(62); Pakistan(137); Sri Lanka(80).

Sub-Sahran Africa

Angola(162); Benin(91); Botswana(75); Burundi(84); Cameroon(107); Cape Verde(35); Chad(82); Democratic Republic of Congo(75); Cote d'Ivoire(251); Ghana(100); Guinea(88); Kenya(87); Lesotho(100); Liberia(63); Malawi(87); Mali(107); Mauritania(95); Mauritius(73); Namibia(80); Nigeria(67); Rwanda(91); Senegal(74); Sierra Leone(78); South Africa(92); Tanzania(85); Uganda(118); Zambia(79).

The following table contains the 30 global risks that respondents were asked to choose from:
Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological
Asset bubble Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse Failure of national governance Failure of urban planning Critical information infrastructure breakdown
Deflation Extreme weather events Failure of regional and global governance Food crises Cyber attacks
Energy price shock Failure of climate-change adaptation Inter-state conflict Large-scale involuntary migration Data fraud or theft
Failure of critical infrastructure Humanmade environmental catastrophes State collapse or crisis Profound social instability Misuse of technologies
Failure of financial mechanism or institution Natural catastrophes Terrorist attacks Spread of infectious diseases
Fiscal crises Weapons of mass destruction Water crises
Illicit trade
Unemployment or underemployment
Unmanageable inflation

About Us

This interactive map was produced by the Global Risks Initiative in collaboration with the World Economic Forum Platform for Shaping the Future of the New Economy and Society, which conducts the Executive Opinion Survey (EOS).



This project is part of a long-standing relationship that underpins the flagship Global Risks Report. The Forum would like to thank Marsh & McLennan, SK Group, and Zurich Insurance Group for their help in developing and disseminating this project. For more information, please contact GlobalRisksReport@weforum.org.


Contributors

Global Risks Initiative

Emilio Granados Franco, Head, Global Risks and Geopolitical Agenda
Melinda Kuritzky, Lead, Global Risks and Geopolitical Agenda
Richard Lukacs, Specialist, Global Risks and Geopolitical Agenda
Marie Sophie Müller, Lead, Global Risks and Geopolitical Agenda

Platform for the New Economy and Society

Roberto Crotti, Insights Lead, Benchmarking Practice
Kusum Kali Pal, Data and Research Analyst, Benchmarking Practice
Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, Managing Board

Design

Jordynn McKnight, Designer

Web Development

Kodjo Adanledji, Data Science and Visualization Specialist

Editing

Elizabeth Mills, Editor

Media

Aylin Elci, Communications Officer, Media Relations
Maxwell Hall, Broadcast and Live Production Lead, Video Content Production
Yann Zopf, Head of Media, Media Relations

A special thanks to our Partner contributors:

Marsh & McLennan

Missy DeAngelis, Jason Groves, Katarzyna Pazdur, Graeme Riddell, Richard Smith-Bingham, Stephen Szaraz

SK Group

Guillaume Barthe-Dejean, Okkyung Han, Ilbum Kim, Keyjoon Kwon

Zurich Insurance Group

Laura Castellano, Pavel Osipyants, John Scott

How to use this site

Navigation

Interactive Map

Explore detailed results by economy, risk or category

Risks & Sector

Explore global averages of perceived risks by country and sector.

Overview Table

Explore top five perceived risks by economy.



Methodology & Acknowledgements

This map is based on more than 11,000 survey responses from nearly 126 economies. Find more information on our methodology and acknowledgements here.

Shareables

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Terms we use.

Executive Opinion Survey. Conducted Explore top five perceived risks by economy.

Global Risk

An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for several economies or sectors within the next 10 years.



Regional Business Perception of Risk

Weighted economy-level responses by GDP and population. See Methodology for more detail.

Global Business Perception of Risk

Simple average of regional business perceptions of risks.